Saturday, August 13, 2016

The 411 on Trump’s Economic Advisory Team

Dan DiMicco: While not strangers to one another, Trump and DiMicco had never formally met until just two weeks ago where, at Trump Towers they sat down and discussed trade issues.  DiMicco has however spoken with the Trump campaign on economic issues roughly a half dozen times since having being approached by a senior Trump policy advisor two months ago and was asked to serve as an economic policy advisor, an offer DiMicco accepted.

DiMicco was a logical choice for Trump despite having no past relationship or business dealings.  The fact of the matter is, Trump knows little if anything of DiMicco’s business history however, DiMicco does share many of the same critical views on free trade that Trump does which has resulted in him speaking out in favor of Donald Trump’s trade ideas on nationally televised news programs which of course caught Trump’s attention.

FEC records indicate that DiMicco has not contributed to Trump’s campaign although he has done so for at least one of the other Republican candidates who ran against Trump in the primaries.  When asked about endorsing Trump, DiMicco’s answers were pretty subdued, stating the he supported Trump’s trade policies and provided more of a defenses for Trump rather than an endorsement on issues such as immigration and his political ability.
*
*
Howard Lorber:  A great friend of the families, golf buddy, real estate developer and fellow Manhattanite, Lorber has appeared on The Apprentice.  In addition to being a major contributor to the Trump campaign, Lorber was one of the large donors to Trump’s Veterans fundraiser he threw as a ruse in order to not have to face-off with GOP debate moderator Megyn Kelly in the second GOP primary debate last year.  Lorber is the President and CEO of the Vector Group, which through several of its subsidiaries has deep roots in the tobacco and e-cig industries.
*
*
Andy Beal:  Trump has been acquainted with banking tycoon Andy Beal for some time however, has had little love for him as it was Beal who teamed with Carl Icahn to try and take over Trump Entertainment Resorts back in 2009.  The takeover failed in the courts but left Trump with a bitter taste in his mouth for Beal.  This past March, all was righted in the world however, when Beal gave Trump his full endorsement.  With that simple gesture, in true Trump fashion, Beal went from zero to hero in an instant.  In a press conference following the endorsement, Trump describing Beal as “the most successful and wealthiest investor in the country.  Of course neither is true, Warren Buffet is at least 5 time wealthier but what’s $50 billion here or there right?

Some may remember Andy Beal as the guy who, earlier in the campaign, contributed $100,000 to a pro-Trump spending vehicle only to have it returned by Trump in holding with his primary pledge to be self-funded.  Beal continues to be a YUGE supporter and donor to the Trump campaign.
*
*
Harold Hamm:  There is little in common between a real estate developer turned reality TV show host and a gas and oil tycoon which is large and in part why Trump and Hamm’s paths really never crossed through the years.  Where the connection between the two are made dates back to the 2012 Romney campaign with Hamm being an energy advisor and top contender for Energy Secretary.  At that time, Trump was already contemplating a 2016 run for the presidency and asked for a meeting with Hamm to pick his brain a little.

Their paths did not cross again until 2014 and not even directly.  Trump happened to notice Hamm was wearing one of his ties in a Forbes Magazine cover story (a gift from their first meeting).  Trump sent Hamm a new batch of ties with a short letter telling him how impressed he was with him.  Trump has been quoted as saying the two are longtime friends but there is little to link the two as much more than acquaintances, first coming together during Mitt Romney’s 2012 run.

With limited resources to reach out to and Hamm most certainly being well in the know in the energy sector, at least in the oil and gas world, the relationship between Trump and Hamm did not come to fruition until Tramp tapped Hamm again on advice during his campaign and in April received a full endorsement from Hamm who is said to be Trump’s top (and possibly only) candidate to fill the Energy Secretary position.

Hamm is an unconventional choice for Energy Secretary to say the least, some saying that it is an expression of Trump’s lack of depth and understanding of what the Department of Energy, to which the Energy Secretary heads up, actually does.  It’s not just about sucking energy out of the ground, the job also requires an open mind to new and alternative energy technologies, global energy economics and nuclear waste handling.
*
*
Steven Mnuchin:  Did you make it to the opening night of Suicide Squad this past Friday?  Did you know that the movies executive producer’s name is on Trump’s list of economic advisors?  That’s right, Steven Mnuchin is the Executive Producer of the summer block buster that just released.

A highly successful film financier, back in May, Mnuchin somewhat quietly took on the role of Trump’s National Finance Chairman.  However, in his new role he may face a great deal of criticism, especially from those who
conspiratorise (not sure that is really a word) that Trump is a Clinton plant put in place to help Hillary win the election.  Mnuchin also has a long history of donating and working for democratic fund raising machines and is a little know commodity amongst major Republican donors, making him a bit of an unusual, even questionable choice.  Oh and there is that $3.2 million windfall the Mnuchin family received from the Madoff Ponzi scheme that some might object to as well.  His success in finance is mixed, with some big wins under his belt and a number of failure as well.  On a lighter note Trump and Mnuchin have been personal friends for some 15 years.

Oh and Mnuchin just happens to be a major donor to the Trump campaign.
*
*
John Paulson:  Yes, the same John Paulson whose company in 2007 earned $15 billion on a bet that the sub-prime mortgage industry would collapse, the event that sent our economy into a tail spin resulting in our nation’s worst recession since the Great Depression.  Paulson himself pocket a cool $4 billion in the deal.  Despite the jobs lost, savings erased and lives ruined as a result, the financial windfall still makes Paulson look like a winner in Trump’s eye and we all know how much Donald loves a winner.

It was not long after Paulson’s grand bet against American however, that his odds changed significantly and for many years now his company has been taking major losses.  Last year alone Paulson’s assets fell 22%, he’s just not been doing well reading the markets and it’s a trend that has been going on for some time.

Is there a tie between Paulson and Trump?  Sure there is, Trump is an investor in several of the mega hedge funders funds!  To show his gratitude Paulson recently paid $250K for a couple’s seat at a Trump fund raiser.
*
*
Steve Feinberg: 
Co-founder and CEO of Cerberus Capital Management, Feinberg has had great success in his career as a private equity investor, his resume is not without failure however.  As some may recall, it was Cerberus who responsible for the failure of Chrysler Capitol just two years after benefiting greatly from the Obama Administration’s auto bailout.

Other than giving Trump his endorsement and being one of the mega hedge funders that attended Trump’s $50K per plate ($250K for a couple) fundraiser back in June, there is little that I could find to connect Trump and Feinberg in any way, personally or professionally other than being a major contributor to Trump’s campaign.
*
*
Stephen Moore:  One of only three actual economist on Trump’s 13 person economic advisory panel, Stephen Moore (along with Larry Kudlow) was recently solicited by Trump to re-write his costly ($10 trillion) regressive tax plan, that he introduced last year, into something more palatable to critics and voters.  The revised plan of Moore/Kudlow was abandoned by Trump however, after an analysis conducted by the Tax Foundation concluded that any benefits to the middle class (realized in the original plan) were essentially washed away and ultimately only gave tax breaks to the top earners.

The best that I can tell, it was an August 2015 email Moore sent to Trump’s former campaign manager Corey Lewandowski that first brought Moore and Trump together.  Merely showing interest in helping Trump with tax plan ideas and his personal endorsement, seemed to be enough to have earned Moore and instant position as an economic advisor to Trump.
*
*
David Malpass:  The only individual in the group with any direct political experience, David Malpass has spent his entire career working primarily in the realm of economics and has served both in both Reagan’s and Bush41’s administrations followed by a 15 year stint as the chief economic advisor to Bear Stearns.  If the name Bear Stearns seems familiar to you it’s because they made headlines as being  the first of a long string of investment banking firms to come under destress in the 2007 home mortgage industry collapse.

Not to be confused with the bankers who actually orchestrated the collapse, it happened however, much at the advice of economic advisors, such as Malpass, who read the economic climate of the time incorrectly and failed to warn thus ward off the impending danger of the sub-prime loans which were being handed out like rain drops in a thunder storm.

There is nothing that I could find that suggests Trump knew Malpass prior to entering the 2016 race for the GOP nomination, personally or professionally.
*
*
Steve Roth:  Another New Yorker, Steve Roth and Donald Trump are odd bedfellows as far as real estate magnets go.

The story that brings these two together is long and complex and certainly not one Trump cares to boasts about, at least not in a factual sense, although elements of the story have be well embellished by Trump of course making himself out to be a magnificent deal maker.  In a nut shell, it all started from a very large piece of Manhattan property Trump purchased with other people money, that never got developed and was heading into foreclosure.  An odd sequence of events took place that ultimately landed the property in the hands of investors from Honk Kong (Trump “I’ve traded billions with China” connection).  Trump maintaining 30% but no control of the property of its development, the remaining 70% ultimately ended up in the hands of the Vornado Realty Trust of which Steve Roth is the founder and CEO. 

Despite Trump’s countless legal objections, claims of being cheated and underhanded dealings by the other parties along the way (every one of which turned out to be untrue), the property has become the most lucrative on Trump’s balance sheet and makes up a substantial part of his wealth.

While Trump describes Roth as a great friend, I’m not sure the sentiment is shared however Trump does owe a great deal to Roth, not just for being responsible for a major portion of Trump’s wealth but also for not calling Trump out on his highly embellished story.  Few outside the world that Trump and Roth live in have any idea of their co-ownership of some of the most lucrative office property in New York and San Francisco and you’re not likely going to hear Trump speak of it.
*
*
Stephen M. Calk: Founder, Chairman of The Board and Chief Executive Officer of Federal Saving Bank, how or why Investment Banker Stephen Calk made the cut to Trump’s economic team is a bit perplexing.  

Calk claims he met Donald Trump at a fund raiser many years ago but there is nothing that I could find that tied the two together professionally or personally over the years.  This does not mean that they are not, I simply could not make the connection.  In a recent interview, Calk described Trump’s interest in him being that of a business person and as someone who was a military officer and family man.  He also stated that Trump liked that he was an entrepreneur who built his own business. 

Again there seems to be no business or personal link between the two.  Calk’s Federal Saving Bank does however, cater to helping finance home loans for our nation’s veterans so maybe Trump thought this was a marketable attribute.  And then there is the fact that he was named Stephen, number five on the list of Stephen/Steven/Steve’s who serve on Trump’s economic advisory panel.
*
*
Tom Barrack:  Another on a long list of billionaire bankers and real estate investors that are throwing their money and support behind Donald Trump, Tom Barrack is a major contributor to the Trump campaign, Barrack also formed a super PAC for Trump.  The two have been friends for some 35 years and have partnered in several real estate development projects together over the years.
*
*
Peter Navarro:  The two have never met but it is Peter Navarro’s widely unaccepted views on free trade and especially the trade deficit with China that Donald Trump has embraced and made into the cornerstone of his economic plan.  Navarro is the sole PhD (Harvard) carrying economist on the Trump’s economic advisory panel and only one of three, in the group of thirteen, that are not billionaire bankers or real estate mogul.

*
*

So there you have it, a brief rundown of what has turned out to be a pretty lack luster list of personal friends, billionaire bankers and folks that have endorsed Trump’s 2016 run for the presidency.

I’m really not sure where Trump is going with this team he has put together but it certainly does not reflect his claim of knowing and/or tapping in to the best and the brightest minds.  What I found the list most lacking was economists! 

More than half of the team Trump never met until throwing his name in the hat for the GOP nomination last year (some he still may not have met).  Several others, while acquainted with, Trump has a bit of a tenuous business relationship with.  There also seems to be quite a bit of quid pro quo going on with Trump’s selections.

Along with being nearly void of actual economists, the Wall Street heavy team of 13 is totally void of women, which will certainly not go unnoticed.  Likely not to go unnoticed is the average age of the team, which happens to be 62.  Is this really the best that Trump could come up with?  Is he really that shortsighted or are their rally so few experts that care to be a part of the Trump team?  One critic went as far as to describe the list of advisors as looking like something thrown together by an unknowing intern who got stuck on the letter “S”, I can’t say that I disagree.

To be honest, Trump’s weak economic team comes as no surprise considering the B-list cast that Trump put together as his foreign policy team earlier this year but a dark reflection of what could be in store for cabinet picks of Trump were to win the White House.

No comments:

Post a Comment