Saturday, August 29, 2015

California’s Solar Energy Fiasco


While President Obama is out gallivanting around, trying to convince everyone that climate change is going to be the death of us all unless the Unite States converts to green energy, I wonder if he is mentioning how bad the Federal Government’s massive push to move to solar power is failing in my fine state of California.

An ill-conceived and unproven solution to a problem manifested by a liberal ideology, the idea of constructing massive solar fields on public lands of California, mostly in the southern desert region were the sun shines virtually every day of the year, has not panned out so well for the administration and certainly not for the taxpayer subsidizing this flawed idea.

Solar farms are by no means a new, especially to the Southern California desert.  There were several of these facilities built in the early 1980’s however, the allure did not last long mostly due to their fiscal restraints. 

The Solar farms of the 80’s pale in comparison to the facilities that are being proposed today, a handful of which are already on-line.  These utility-scale solar plants were nowhere to be found just a few years ago but largely due to the offering of large parcels of public land; federally guaranteed loans and significant tax breaks, developers saw the potential to make money on these once risky ventures.  But as it turns out, even with free land, fast track permitting and billions of dollars in federal stimulus money, the large number of challenges these utility-scale solar plants still face has kept developers away.

Ironically, some of the greatest challenges these utility-scale solar plants encounter are environmental in nature, the largest being the damage they do to the desert landscape and those creatures that inhabit that landscape.  A solar field with an output of 250 megawatts requires a parcel of scraped land roughly 2,000 acers in size, a 500 megawatt field as much as 4,000 acres.  To put this in to perspective, a natural gas burning, 300 megawatt combined cycle combustion turbine power plant requires as few as 15 acres. 

The remote locations of these utility-scale solar plants almost always requires the construction of power transmission infrastructure, which again disrupts the landscape and natural desert habitat whereas the perspective combustion turbine type plant can be located in the middle of town, right where the power is needed, and adjacent to transmission lines thus disrupting little more than the flow of street traffic at shift change.  That is not to say all of these large facilities destroy desert habitat as some have been built on former agricultural land.  This repurposed land has already been disturbed and therefor poses no threat to any endangered species.

Capacity is another factor.  Obviously, solar plants only generate when the skies are clear and the sun is shining.  In residential and the 9 to 5 business environment, this is not much of an issue however, at the utility-scale, such plants are what keeps the grid energized for the nighttime energy consumers.  Nighttime energy usage is something that pure solar facilities are unable to accommodate.

And there is a new obstacle these large solar projects face, the calendar.  The clock is running out as the large tax breaks that are being offered to developers scale back significantly in 2016 and eventually will vanish altogether.

So where does California stand in its effort to effect global climate change?  Let’s take a look.  Following is a brief description and status of the large utility-type solar projects (100 megawatts and above) that have been approved for construction, by the California Public Utility Commission’s (CPUC), and that the developer’s commitment to move forward was enough to make a public announcement of their forthcoming construction.

 
Desert Sunlight Solar
Located near Desert Center, California, the 8.8 million photovoltaic (PV) panels generate 550 megawatts of power and cover 3,800 acres of land made available through the BLM.  The plant went into full scale operation this year.
 

Topaz Solar
Similar in physical size, output and technology of the Desert Sunlight Solar plant, Topaz went in to full commercial operation in late 2014.
 

Genesis Solar
Located east of Blyth, California, Genesis is an operational 500 megawatt solar project built on 2,000 acres of BLM land.
 

Mount Signal Solar
Originally slated as a utility-scale 600 megawatt solar field, the first phase of the project comprised of a 206 megawatt PV solar field.  Located on 2,700 acres of land on California’s southern-most boarder, near the town of Calexico, the first phase went in to commercial operation in mid-2014.  The plans were to expand the generating capacity of the Mount Signal Solar field to 600 megawatts in two additional phases but it does not appear that the expansion will happen.
 

Antelope Valley Solar Project (Solar Star)
Currently the largest solar project in California the Antelope Valley Solar Project (AVSP) is rated at 579 megawatts.  Located near Lancaster, California, AVSP is comprised of two independent solar fields located adjacent to one another.  Covering 3,200 acres of reclaimed agricultural land, the AVSP went in to commercial operation in June of this year. 

The Antelope Valley Solar Project is not to be confused with the much smaller Antelope Valley Solar Ranch, also located near Lancaster, California.
 

Ivanpah Solar
The 392 megawatt rated Ivanpah Solar Farm has suffered its share of problems.  First the desert tortoise, and then clouds (in the desert?) and even con trails from commercial jet travel.  

The 4,000 acre Ivanpah Solar plant is located on in a remote desert area on the California/Nevada border and is home to the largest Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plant in the world.  However, the facility has yet to operating at its rated capacity, in fact it falls roughly 40% short of the electrical output it was designed to produce.  The California Energy Commission released a statement which blamed clouds, jet contrails and the weather for the facilities shortfall (see link).

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/nov/17/huge-solar-plant-lags-early-production/?page=all


The desert tortoise has also played its part in the plants reduction of capacity.  Ivanpah Solar was originally slated as a 440 megawatt facility however, due to the discovery of the desert tortoise’s habitat on a portion of federal land being granted to the developer, the size of the facility had to be scaled back.

Natural gas usage has also become an issue at this solar generating facility.  That’s right, natural gas.  Ivanpah is classified as a solar/thermal plant whereas solar energy is captured and used to generate the steam needed to drive a steam turbine generator set.  Steam needs to be at a certain pressure and temperature before it can be injected into a steam turbine.  To maximize the use of the daylight hours, it is desirable to have the steam plant at operating conditions when the solar component become available.  This means a natural gas fired boiler must be put in to play.  At the Ivanpah facility, natural gas usage is quadruple that what was expected, driving the operating cost of the facility up considerably.

And the last bit of troubling news for the Ivanpah facility, to the taxpayers anyway, is that
the investors applied for a $539 million federal grant to help pay off the $1.6 billion federal loan provided to the investors to build the facility.


Antelope Valley Solar Ranch One
The first of what was slated as a pair of 266 megawatt solar farms, Antelope Valley Solar Ranch One went into commercial operation in April of 2014.  The solar field is made up of 3.8 million panels covering 2,100 acres of land.  ITs sister plant has been canceled.

The Antelope Valley Solar Ranch One is not to be confused with the much larger Antelope Valley Solar Project, also located near Lancaster, California.


Imperial Valley Solar Farm
Located in close proximity to the Mount Signal Solar farm, the Imperial Valley Solar Farm (IVSF) went in to commercial operation in late 2013.  IVSF has a generating capacity of 99 megawatts.
 

Soda Mountain Solar
Still in development this 350 megawatt solar field just cleared a major environment hurdle having completed a three year environmental impact study.  A new problem as transpired however, which may cause the project to be abandon.  The Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) has backed out of it agreement to purchase the power generated by Soda Mountain, stating that to do so would be too costly and damaging to the Big Horn Sheep in the area.  The developers are now scrambling to find new customers for their power.


 
Mojave Solar Project
Located adjacent to one of the early solar facilities build just outside Hinkley, California back in the 80’s, the Mojave Solar Project is a 250 megawatt facility utilizing Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) technology to capture the suns energy and generate steam.  The project is located on an 1,800 acre parcel of land and was funded through a $1.2 billion loan guarantee from the US government.  The facility went in to commercial operation in late 2014.


Palan Solar
Proposed 500 megawatt solar field.  This project has been CANCALED!

Calico Solar
Proposed 618 megawatt solar field to rest on a 4.600 acres of land made available through the BLM.  This project has been CANCALED!
 

Fort Irwin Solar
The original proposal to develop a 500 megawatt solar project was scrapped.  The project now consists of a single “behind the fence” 2.4 megawatt solar array servicing an on-base facility.


Hidden Hills Solar
This project is comprised of a pair of 250 megawatt solar farms to be located in Inyo County.  This project has been CANCALED!

Rio Mesa Solar
To be located on 4,000 acres near the town of Blyth, the 500 megawatt solar project has
been CANCALED!
 
Antelope Valley Solar Ranch Two
Meant to be a sister plant to the 266 megawatt Antelope Valley Solar Ranch One, which went in to commercial operation in early 2014, this project has been CANCALED!


There you have it, a picture of what utility-scale solar energy development looks like in sunny Southern California, the land of nearly 300 clear and sunny days each and every year.  The conditions could not be more perfect for large scale solar energy to thrive and with granted land, large tax incentives and guaranteed loans, how could any power developer pass up on such a great deal?

Of the 16 large scale solar projects listed above, five projects have been canceled; one is in jeopardy of being canceled; one has been reduced to a small “inside the fence” project; one project has been reduced in capacity by two thirds and one final project is suffering from so many performance issues that it is struggling to survive.  That leaves seven of the 16 solar farms in-tact and operational, not a real good batting average.  And the likelihood of any new utility-scale solar plants being developed in California any time in the immediate future is pretty slim as the door that led to the most attractive development opportunities is about to slam closed.

Small, “behind the fence” solar projects have achieved much greater success.  These little power packages are well fitted for large commercial spaces, they have a palatable capital investment and typically have favorable paybacks.  By no means a new idea however, with the advancement of low cost PV panel technology, these “behind the fence” projects have finally come in to their own, especially in the very green conscious state of California.  These solar projects are driven more by favorable economics than their environmental benefits, as even in mass and in their typical application, they have a very small impact on the overall carbon footprint of our nation and the world.  But as the saying goes, every little bit counts.

Residential solar is all the rage across the nation, just as it was back in the 70’s and early 80’s.  And just as residential solar did back then, the rage will be short lived.  It all looks good theory but history is destine to repeat itself.  Small companies peddling residential solar installation and maintenance will go out of business soon after the new installation surge ends.  Once federal incentives have expired, the replacement costs of these panels will not make economic sense and, just as they did 30 years ago, the neighbors will soon start complaining about those unsightly rooftop black panels that are driving the home prices down in their neighborhood.  It’s all just a matter of time.

And so, despite all of President Obama’s claims, based on what we have seen here in California, new solar energy development in the United States is not going to affect global climate change, it’s not even going to put a minor dent in it.

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