Jobs Growth Worsens Despite Strong Numbers In April

A weeks back I wrote a blog titled “Democrats Praise Obama’s Jobs Creation - Do They Have A Point?”.  In the closing paragraph I concluded that at the then current 12 month monthly average jobs growth rate of 261,000 jobs, it would not be until May of 2020 that jobs reached a net zero gain/loss from the time the economy started shedding jobs in 2007.  This conclusion included all jobs lost since the start of the recessions and assumed that on average, 125,000 new participants entered the work force each month since that same time.  Of course, if job growth were to exceed and maintain a monthly growth greater than 261,000 then we would reach job equilibrium some time sooner than May of 2020.

So yesterday the jobs numbers for April were released as well the jobs numbers for March were revised, the results of which moved the date to which jobs would reach equilibrium further to the right unfortunately.

Aprils jobs grow was reported at 223,000, down 38,000 from the previous 12 month average.  More damaging however was the revised March jobs numbers which were dropped from 126,000 to 85,000, a downward adjustment of 41,000 jobs for the month.  This drops the new 12 month monthly jobs growth average to 248,000 from the previous 12 month monthly average of 261,000.  Plug these new/revised jobs numbers into the jobs projection spreadsheet, along with the latest 12 month monthly average and we are now looking at December of 2020 to reach jobs equilibrium verses May.

Again, these are just numbers and if jobs growth picks up considerably and maintain itself then we start moving the date to the left again.  Let’s say for example if we were to average a job growth rate of 300,000 per month, we would then reach jobs equilibrium by April of 2019.  But we’ve got a long long ways to go to get to, much less maintain any such job growth rate and with the economy barely inching along the prospects of robust job growth is pretty slim.