Burwell did do a good job of tamping down enrollment expectations for 2016 although I do not believe she went far enough, but understandably so, as by all accounts there will be fewer insured on the individual marketplace at the end of 2016 than at the end of 2015. Burwell also reported something quite unusual, she actually provided figures for the number of uninsured they project will gain coverage this enrollment period, something that has not been done since before the start of the first open enrollment period, back prior to October of 2013.
In her news brief Burwell states:
Finally, there are those who will come from the 10.5 million eligible
uninsured. We expect to draw in about 2.8 million to 3.9 million of those
individuals.
Burwell predicts that somewhere between 2.8 to 3.9 million
uninsured individuals will purchase a healthcare plan through the state and
federal healthcare exchange this coming open enrollment period. That’s a pretty lofty goal when you consider
the abysmal turnout by the uninsured during the first two open enrollment
periods, turnout which yielded fewer than 2 million1 enrollments
combined.
It’s hard to imagine that with the news of significant premium increases coming in 2016 and the law’s continued loss of popularity, that as many as twice the number of uninsured who have enrolled over the past two open enrollment periods will elect to do so in 2016. In fact, I am going to call foul on this prediction and make my own, that enrollment of the uninsured will be around 1 million.
I must also take exception to the 10.5 million eligible uninsured, as stated by Burwell in her news brief. This is a gross misrepresentation of the pool of uninsured individuals eligible to participate on the healthcare Marketplace. I address this misrepresentation in an earlier blog titled HHS Makes 14.1 Million Uninsured People Magically Disappear.
A Net Negative Enrollment
It’s not where you start, it’s where you finish and two full years after the implementation of the individual mandate and only 3 months left in the year, HHS is projecting that 2015 will close with an effectuated enrollment of 9.1 million. What HHS does not disclose in their projection is that fewer than 2 million1 of those enrolled were from the pool of 28 million uninsured, eligible to participate on the healthcare Marketplace.
Looking forward, HHS is projecting that 2016 will close with an effectuated enrollment between 9.4 million and 11.4 million. Considering the starting point was 9.1 million, this projection does not look very optimistic. And when you take in to account the administration’s history of grossly overstating the number of uninsured who will participate on the exchanges, you begin to gain the sense that enrollment could actually take a turn in the negative direction.
Consider if you will, that after 2 open enrollment periods, which together provided consumers 9 months of opportunity to purchase a qualified healthcare plan, fewer than 2 million1 did so. Also consider that those who did so were largely the most elderly and least healthy in the pool of uninsured, those with the most incentive to secure healthcare that was previously very costly or denied to them altogether. With this in mind, it is hard to fathom that between 2.8 to 3.9 million uninsured individuals will purchase a healthcare plan through the state and federal healthcare exchange this coming open enrollment period as Burwell suggests in her newsbrief.
A more realistic enrollment projection than that suggested in Burwell’s news report is something more in line to the average participation of the uninsured over the past two open enrollment periods, which is just under 1 million. And when you substitute 1 million in place of the HHS 2016 projections, enrollment actually drops below 2015 numbers.
Achieving a net negative enrollment will not bode well for ObamaCare and will make it more difficult for Democrats to argue against the Republican effort for a full or partial repeal of the law. And rest assured, once the 2016 open enrollment period closes and the dust settles, Republicans are going to make a big issue with the fact that the individual mandate has hardly put a dent in the pool of 28 million uninsured who are qualified to participate on the healthcare Marketplace.
1 HHS reports that the nation’s uninsured has dropped by 15.3 million since
January 1, 2014. At the same time CMS reports that 13.5 million
individuals have taken advantage of the Medicaid expansion over the same
period. The difference between enrollments
is 1.8 million which accounts for all on exchange and off exchange individual
plans purchased.It’s hard to imagine that with the news of significant premium increases coming in 2016 and the law’s continued loss of popularity, that as many as twice the number of uninsured who have enrolled over the past two open enrollment periods will elect to do so in 2016. In fact, I am going to call foul on this prediction and make my own, that enrollment of the uninsured will be around 1 million.
I must also take exception to the 10.5 million eligible uninsured, as stated by Burwell in her news brief. This is a gross misrepresentation of the pool of uninsured individuals eligible to participate on the healthcare Marketplace. I address this misrepresentation in an earlier blog titled HHS Makes 14.1 Million Uninsured People Magically Disappear.
A Net Negative Enrollment
It’s not where you start, it’s where you finish and two full years after the implementation of the individual mandate and only 3 months left in the year, HHS is projecting that 2015 will close with an effectuated enrollment of 9.1 million. What HHS does not disclose in their projection is that fewer than 2 million1 of those enrolled were from the pool of 28 million uninsured, eligible to participate on the healthcare Marketplace.
Looking forward, HHS is projecting that 2016 will close with an effectuated enrollment between 9.4 million and 11.4 million. Considering the starting point was 9.1 million, this projection does not look very optimistic. And when you take in to account the administration’s history of grossly overstating the number of uninsured who will participate on the exchanges, you begin to gain the sense that enrollment could actually take a turn in the negative direction.
Consider if you will, that after 2 open enrollment periods, which together provided consumers 9 months of opportunity to purchase a qualified healthcare plan, fewer than 2 million1 did so. Also consider that those who did so were largely the most elderly and least healthy in the pool of uninsured, those with the most incentive to secure healthcare that was previously very costly or denied to them altogether. With this in mind, it is hard to fathom that between 2.8 to 3.9 million uninsured individuals will purchase a healthcare plan through the state and federal healthcare exchange this coming open enrollment period as Burwell suggests in her newsbrief.
A more realistic enrollment projection than that suggested in Burwell’s news report is something more in line to the average participation of the uninsured over the past two open enrollment periods, which is just under 1 million. And when you substitute 1 million in place of the HHS 2016 projections, enrollment actually drops below 2015 numbers.
Achieving a net negative enrollment will not bode well for ObamaCare and will make it more difficult for Democrats to argue against the Republican effort for a full or partial repeal of the law. And rest assured, once the 2016 open enrollment period closes and the dust settles, Republicans are going to make a big issue with the fact that the individual mandate has hardly put a dent in the pool of 28 million uninsured who are qualified to participate on the healthcare Marketplace.
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