Certainly the folks over at the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) have by now tallied up the figures. They must know the exact number of formerly uninsured nonelderly people that signed up for healthcare insurance on one of the state and federal healthcare exchanges as well the number who did so whom were insured prior to the ObamaCare rollout. Let’s not forget about the number of young and healthy that have signed up for ObamaCare, that oh so critical demographic that is needed to cover the high cost of insuring the sick and the elderly.
Show Me The Numbers
HHS has been less than forthcoming in providing enrollment figures making it seem as though the self-proclaimed most transparent administration in history might just be hiding something, and they are.
The whole idea behind the ObamaCare method of healthcare reform is to stop people from using the emergency room as their healthcare plan by providing them access to affordable healthcare.
For the poor, access to affordable healthcare was accomplished through the expansion of the Medicaid system, a taxpayer funded payment mechanism that provides free or near free access to healthcare to those that qualify. Medicaid by no means provides individuals with healthcare insurance, it merely gives those whose lesser income qualifies them for the program the peace of mind in knowing that someone will be there to pick up the tab when they are in need of healthcare.
Early on in the first enrollment period, the number that HHS claimed to have signed up for the Medicaid expansion was called into question. The enrollment numbers being claimed were staggering and as it turns out, HHS was reporting all Medicaid enrollments, both reoccurring and those due to the expansion.
HHS excused allegations that they were purposely propping up the Medicaid enrollment number in an attempt to boost the laws popularity. HHS stated that there was no way to differentiate if an enrollment was reoccurring or new as there was no mechanism in place for enrollees to make this distinction. Ironically, the number of people that have signed up for Medicaid, as a direct result of the expansion, is one of the very few numbers that HHS is currently able to provide and reports this figure to be 7.2 million.
The number of formerly uninsured nonelderly individuals who have actually purchased, paid for and retained a qualified healthcare plan from one of the healthcare exchanges remains as elusive as Big Foot and the Loch Ness Monster. HHS has provided a total number of qualified healthcare plans that were purchased from the healthcare exchanges during the initial open enrollment period but has refused to make the distinction as to how many of these plans were purchased by the formerly insure and the formerly uninsured.
HHS has also adopted an enrolment figure drawn from a Gallup study of the uninsured. The Gallup study revealed a sharp drop in the number of uninsured during the last quarter of 2013 and the first quarter of 2014, the period of which the ObamaCare open enrollment covered. The drop ended abruptly at the start of second quarter 2014. Gallup quantified the reduction in the number of uninsured as 10.3 million and attributed the reduction to the Affordable Care Act, aka ObamaCare. It must be noted that the Gallup study includes those who have access to healthcare through Medicaid.
If one were so inclined, they could remove the 7.2 million, whom HHS states have benefited from the Medicaid expansion, from the 10.3 million reduction in the nations uninsured, as reported in the Gallup study, to arrive at the number of formerly uninsured that gained healthcare coverage during the first open enrollment period. HHS has not been so inclined to make this simple analysis however, at least not out loud.
It is unclear as to why HHS adopted the Gallup survey over similar studies conducted or even over their own data. The likely answer to this question is that other enrolment conclusions drawn using the Gallup’s figures, as unattractive as they are, looked the best.
They Moved the Bar
There was a valuable lesson learned during the first open enrollment period.
Two thirds the way through the first open enrollment period the popularity of ObamaCare looked to be facing numbers as low as 50% of the 7 million forecast. Looking to lessen the embarrassment, the enrollment bar was lowered to 6 million. But a last minute surge in enrollment, likely caused by those whose policy cancelations where kicking in, pushed enrollment over the 8 million mark. Not only did the administration overt what looked to be an enrollment disaster, by lowering the bar they were now able to claim that enrollment exceeded expectations by 35%.
It appears that they are taking heed to the lesson learned in the first round as HHS has recently released that the goal for 2015 is to reduce the number of the nation’s uninsured by 9.1 million at the close of the second enrollment period, down 30% from the original projection 13 million.
Already claiming that 7.1 million have obtained a qualified healthcare plan, as a direct result of ObamaCare, HHS needs to add only 2 million to the count to achieve their 2015 goal. Anything beyond 2 million will be used by the Obama Administration to boast what they want people to believe is the growing popularity of the healthcare law.
Sadly, both enrollment claims and projections provided by HHS have been highly deceptive. Enrollment projections stated by HHS have always come from forecasts provided by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) which reflect the annual reduction in the number of uninsured nonelderly, as a result of ObamaCare. At no time has the CBO analysis ever included a component that takes into account the number of formerly insured that have transfer over to one of the healthcare exchanges.
Yet, HHS and the president himself repeatedly compare ObamaCare enrollment to the CBO forecast when measuring the success of the controversial healthcare law. This apples to oranges comparison is highly deceptive and most certainly intentional. If an apples to apples comparison were made, i.e. the number of formerly uninsured nonelderly that have gained insurance through ObamaCare vs. the CBO forecast, proponents of the law would have a difficult time fending off the opposition’s calls for repeal.
2nd Wave of Cancelations
A second round of individual insurance plan cancelations are already underway and most definitely will be the tool to which drives up enrollment on the state and federal healthcare exchanges as was the case in 2014.
The ObamaCare driven cancelation of individual insurance plans made up for 56% of the 2014 enrollment. It will be some time before we know the effect that the second round of cancelations will have on the number who enroll on one of the state and federal healthcare exchanges during the 2015 open enrollment period but you can be assured that HHS will count those towards the enrollment goal of 9.1 million, just as they have in the past.
Many small-group insurance plans are also expected to receive cancelation notices this year and the number could run up into the millions.
Insures Cannot Be Too Happy
The insurance companies are watching closely and they cannot be all too happy with how ObamaCare is shaping up.
In the negotiations to secure their participation on the healthcare exchanges, insurers were promised that 25 million new participants would be added to the insurance marketplace by 2016. With roughly 3 million having been added in 2014 and another 2 million forecasted to be added in 2015, the Obama Administration has set itself a pretty lofty goal for 2016.
Maybe the president has a plan B, which is what those who oppose ObamaCare are most afraid of.
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