Latest Enrollment Forecast Does Not Bode Well For ObamaCare!

Just days before the Affordable Care Act, better known as ObamaCare, was signed into law, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its cost and enrollment forecasts which would become the boiler plate to which the success of ObamaCare would be measured.  In the report the CBO forecasted that the number of the nation’s nonelderly uninsured would be reduced by 8 million in 2014 and in 2015 by a total of 13 million.

Leading up to the inaugural ObamaCare open enrollment period, the CBO revised its enrollment forecast just slightly, reducing its 2014 prediction to 7 million. 

The 2014 open enrollment period for ObamaCare has come and gone.  Now, more than seven months since its close, it remains uncertain as to exactly how many of the uninsured nonelderly now possess healthcare insurance as a result of ObamaCare.  The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has been less than forthcoming in providing enrollment figures which is never a good sign.

A blog posted by HHS, this past August, has helped to answer the 2014 enrollment question.  In the blog, HHS states an enrollment number of 10.3 million, a figure which has been repeated throughout the media and by President Obama himself.  The origin of the 10.3 million figure can be sourced back to a recent Gallup poll and appears to be the 2014 ObamaCare enrollment figure that has been adopted by HHS.  It is important to note that Gallop qualifies their poll findings as representing the reduction in the number of uninsured as a result of both those who purchased healthcare insurance on the private marketplace in addition to those who have taken advantage of the Medicaid expansion.  This is a very important point.

Further on in the HHS blog it states that as of June, 7.2 million additional people enrolled in Medicaid.  This if course is a number sourced directly from HHS itself.

With 10.3 million fewer people that are no longer lacking in some form of healthcare coverage, 7.2 million of which are a result of the Medicaid expansion, when you do the math it leaves only 3.1 million formerly uninsured that could have possibly purchase a qualified healthcare plan on one of the state or federal ObamaCare exchanges.   That’s right only 3.1 million qualified healthcare plans could have been sold on the exchanges during the 2014 enrollment period according to the figures provided by HHS.

Having missed its 7 million enrollment forecast by nearly 60%, 2014 enrollment was a huge disappointment for the Obama Administration and has since had them reassessing their projection for the coming 2015 enrollment period which is due to start in just a couple of days. 

Expecting to achieve the 13 million signups, as forecasted by the CBO, is an unobtainable goal.  A more realistic yet still lofty target would be to repeat the number of uninsured who purchased a qualified healthcare plan in 2014, thus setting the 2015 projection at a mere 6.2 million.  Adopting a goal this low would however be an admission of failure, by the administration and they would never survive the republican thrashing that would ensue if they did so.

To keep up the enrollment charade, the Obama Administration has moved away from using enrollment figures provided by the CBO, not because the forecasts are so high but because they reflect the “uninsured nonelderly” and are labeled as such in their report.

Conveniently, HHS remains unwilling to release the exact number of the uninsured nonelderly that purchased healthcare insurance in 2014, a figure they most certainly possess.  Instead, they would rather state the more attractive figure of “total enrollment”, which includes all those who were formerly insured but have moved over to the healthcare exchanges for one reason or another, in addition to the new enrollments by the formerly uninsured.   

HHS Secretary Sylvia Burwell announced on Monday that the administration has lowered its target and expects there to be 9.1 million new and returning customers in 2015.  Take away the 7.1 million HHS states to have retained healthcare insurance, from the 2014 enrollment period, and you have a net gain of a mere 2 million uninsured nonelderly expected to purchase a qualified healthcare plan on one of the state or federal healthcare exchanges during the coming enrollment period.  When you consider that only 3.1 million uninsured nonelderly obtain healthcare insurance during the initial 6 month enrollment period, a net gain of 2 million for 2015 does not look half bad.

The administration’s significant lowering of expectations for ObamaCare speaks volumes of the law’s shortcomings, specifically its inability to attract new customers.  The law was projected to move 25 million of the uninsured nonelderly to the rolls of the insured by 2016 a projection the law will fall grossly short of and is unlikely to ever achieve.

And the price tag for the troubled healthcare law continues to grow.  The cost of ObamaCare now exceeds $2 trillion dollars, over the next decade, and includes the broken promise, made by the president, that it would not increase the deficit by a single penny.  By any measure of ObamaCare, the end falls far too short of justifying the means.