In their most recent blog post on enrollment, HHS reports that for the period coving Nov. 15 through Dec. 5, 1,383,683 consumers have “selected” a healthcare plan on the federal marketplace. As the federal marketplace accounts for only 73% of the total market (state and federal marketplaces combined), assuming all things to be equal, the total number healthcare plans selected on the state and federal healthcare exchanges looks to cover right around 1.9 million consumers at the end of the first three weeks of open enrollment.
Sorting out the Numbers
An estimated 1.9 million consumers have selected healthcare plans on the exchanges in 3 weeks, not too shabby, but let’s not get too excited just yet, we need to take a few things in to consideration.
First, as reported by HHS, only 48% of those who have selected plans are new customers while the remaining 52% are returning customers that have renewed or exchanged their plans for something different. This means that of the estimated 1.9 million customers on selected plans only 912,000 are new customers, still not a bad figure.
But as we learned from the 2014 enrollment period, not all those who select a plan end up keeping a plan. When all was said and done, 17% of those that selected a plan during the 2014 open enrollment period ended up backing out for one reason or another. Chances are the 2015 open enrollment period will yield similar results thus dropping the new enrollment estimate of 912,000 down to 757,000 for the first three weeks of the 2015 open enrollment cycle.
In an earlier blog post (see section titled “Here are the Numbers”), first week new enrollment was estimated to be in the neighborhood of 303,000 making the combined total new enrollment for weeks two and three approximately 454,000. HHS reported a significant drop in week two enrollment, likely do to the Thanksgiving Holiday period and a subsequent rebounded for week three. From this information we arrive at an average weekly enrollment for weeks two and three of 227,000, a reduction in weekly new enrollment of 25% compared to week one. This should not seem too unusual as with virtually every opening bell comes a boom.
With only three weeks of enrollment reported so far, it is too early to formulate a reliable trend but one thing is for certain, the trend is pointing downward. If the current weekly average were to hold, new enrollment will well exceed the HHS revised projection but will still fall far far short of the numbers ObamaCare was sold to us on.
HHS Lowered the Bar
As it is the intent of ObamaCare to reduce the number of the uninsured, the enrollment forecasts generated by the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and subsequently adopted by HHS are reflective of the uninsured nonelderly population. This is a very important aspect of these forecasts that both HHS and the main stream media conveniently ignore.
The long term CBO forecast used in the crafting of ObamaCare projected that 6 million uninsured nonelderly would purchase a qualified healthcare plan on one of the state or federal healthcare exchanges during the 2015 open enrollment period. However, due to the extremely disappointing results stemming from the 2014 open enrollment period, HHS lowered the projection bar significantly, down to a mere 2 million. A smart move on their part no doubt as failing to reach enrollment goals makes for terrible headlines.
Who is Really Signing Up?
During the 2014 open enrollment period we learned that, with the aid of the main stream media, the Obama Administration demonstrated absolutely no desire to be forthcoming with the make-up of ObamaCare enrollment figures. To this day HHS has not released the breakdown of those 6.7 million enrolments from 2014.
A number of different left leaning think tanks, such as the Urban Institute and the Rand Corp., have conducted studies from which it can be concluded that no more than 50% of the 6.7 million qualified healthcare plans purchased from the healthcare exchanges in 2014 were done so by the uninsured nonelderly. Even using enrollment figures that have been adopted by HHS (they do not publically publish their own numbers), the number of uninsured nonelderly that could have possibly purchased and paid for a qualified healthcare plan in 2014 can be no greater than 4.5 million, a far cry from the 7 million they projected. The same result will hold true for whatever new enrollment figure HHS will ultimately claim for 2015.
There are two factors that contribute to the difference provided by HHS vs. those of the various independent studies. While each of the independent organizations studied the effect ObamaCare has had in the reduction in the number of uninsured, HHS simply provided a total head count for the qualified healthcare plans sold on the exchanges. The difference between the two being HHS’s count does not include those formerly uninsured who gained healthcare coverage off-exchange and most significant, HHS does not excluded those who were previously insured that transferred over to a healthcare plan purchased through one of the exchanges. The latter group of course is made up in majority by those who received policy cancelations for not being ACA compliant.
It is estimated that 4.7 million policies were canceled in 2014 but no hard data has been published which indicates exactly how many individuals those 4.7 million canceled policies once covered. What we do know however is that a large number of those whose policies were canceled ended up purchasing a new plan off of one of the state and federal healthcare exchanges. Those individuals that did so HHS has conveniently included in the 6.7 million enrollments they routinely tout. A misleading claim to say the least, considering HHS holds this figure next to the CBO projection which encompasses enrolment for only the uninsured nonelderly.
The 2015 cancelation notices have already been mailed and you can rest assured, in an effort to boost their enrollment figures, HHS will be taking full advantage of those who transfer from their canceled plans on to qualified healthcare plans just as they did during the 2014 enrollment period and beyond.
How Many Moved to a Cheaper Plan?
Maybe the most disturbing news we have recently received on ObamaCare came right out of the horse’s mouth.
A study conducted by PricewaterhouseCoopers indicated that premiums across all tier levels and all states increased by 5.2% for 2015 when compared to 2014 rates. Hardest hit were the most popular low tier Silver plans which increased on average by 10% as reported by Avelere Health. For an individual, these increases may equate to a few hundred dollars over the course of the year while a family could be faced with having to re-allocate well in excess of $1000 out of the household annual budget to pay for healthcare insurance.
Fearing a mass exodus from ObamaCare, the president has on several occasions openly urged those who have experienced these increases to “shop around”, claiming that there are plenty of good deals to be found on the exchanges, people just need to browse the various plans and find one that best fits their budget. In other words, President Obama is suggesting that people trade in their now unaffordable Silver plan for a far less appealing but affordable Bronze plan. Shopping for a new plan each year makes it difficult to form a relationship with your doctor as well. So this is what having healthcare insurance has become in this country!
And moving to a new plan with more affordable premiums does not mean the insurance is actually affordable. At the urging of President Obama, insurers agreed to keep their premium increases to a minimum and instead transferred the cost to the policy’s co-payments and deductibles which in some instances have more than tripled. Holding insurance premiums down in this manner works out well for the policy holder so long as he or she does not get sick and actually has to use their healthcare insurance.
As we continue on into the 2015 open enrollment period, to what extent HHS will provide enrollment figures we do not know. The number who have enrolled on the different types of plans will eventually be release however, it is highly unlikely that HHS will provided sufficient data to determine how many transferred from a Silver to a Bronze plan vs. how many were new sign-ups. One thing we can be sure of is that HHS will not disclose exactly how many of the new enrollees did so due to having their insurance policies canceled. Doing so would not only speak poorly of 2015 enrollment but would also open up the gate to those that wish this same information for 2014, information that would be damning to the healthcare law.
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