The latest
ObamaCare enrollment figures for the 2015 open enrollment period have been
released by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). Let’s take a look and see how things are
shaping up!
In their December 16th blog post, HHS indicated that 2,466,562 consumers selected a qualified healthcare plan by the end of the fourth week of the open enrollment cycle. Week 4 alone experience just over 1 million plan selections on the exchanges, large in part due to the December 15th deadline that would ensure coverage come January 1. We should see the same robust enrollment in the early days of week 5 as well, as last minute shoppers and procrastinators race to beat the deadline.
It’s Time to Sort out the Numbers Again
As was done in our Week 3 Enrollment Update, we have to make oranges in to apples to get a clear perspective as to how well enrollment is or is not progressing.
First, the figure provided by HHS represents only those who selected plans from the federal exchange. The federal exchange covers only 73% of the states and so, all things being equal, there would be roughly 3.1 million plans selected on the state and federal healthcare exchanges over the first 4 weeks of enrollment. Man, that is a lot of plans selected!
Included in these 3.1 million selections are plan renewals which accounts for 52% of the selections, as reported by HHS. The remaining 48% or 1.5 million selections can be attributed to new customers to the exchanges, not all of which were formerly uninsured.
Next we need to take into account attrition. The 2014 enrollment period yielded a 17% attrition rate when all was said and done and there is no reason to expect the rate to fall this enrollment period. In fact, some industry experts are suggesting that, due to the increase in premiums and deductibles, the attrition rate for 2015 may actually increase. But for now, we will stick with 17% which drops the estimated enrollment down to 1.2 million over the first 4 weeks. Not bad, not bad at all.
At the current pace, some would speculate that 2015 enrollment will be in excess of 3.5 million however, this is highly unlikely. Week 4 enrollment expectedly outpaced the previous 3 weeks due to the December 15th deadline to be insured by January 1. The high volume of individuals who selected plans in week 4 will likely not be seen again, except possibly in the final week, as was seen in 2014.
Those Pesky Cancelation Notices
During the 2014 enrollment period, at least one in every three qualified healthcare plans purchased on the state and federal healthcare exchanges came from an individual transferring off of their old insurance plan. Will the same hold true for 2015?
In a USA Today article published back in October of this year, it was stated that the number of cancelation notices to be {have been} mailed out are expected to be significantly lower than during the first enrollment period but cancelations are coming none the less.
While those in the private individual insurance marketplace are not expected to suffer as bad as in the previous year, the small employer marketplace is about to get its butt kicked by cancelations. This is due to the coming expiration of the delay to the employer mandate which was unilateral imposed last year by President Obama.
Where Do We Actually Stand on Insuring the Uninsured?
The inaugural enrollment period did not get things off to a very good start for ObamaCare and little seems to have improved in the realm of enrollment since then.
To date, HHS has failed to produce the actual number of uninsured nonelderly that selected, paid for and retained a qualified healthcare plan however, through various other enrollment admissions HHS has made, the number can be no greater than 4.5 million and in all likelihood is much less.
Add 2014 enrollment to the extremely optimistic 3.1 million uninsured nonelderly that may purchase, pay for and retain a qualified healthcare plan during the current open enrollment period to arrive at a total of 7.6 million. This very very best case enrollment figure barely surpasses the 2014 projection and is well shy of the 13 million the Obama Administration originally forecasted by close of the 2015 enrollment period.
In their December 16th blog post, HHS indicated that 2,466,562 consumers selected a qualified healthcare plan by the end of the fourth week of the open enrollment cycle. Week 4 alone experience just over 1 million plan selections on the exchanges, large in part due to the December 15th deadline that would ensure coverage come January 1. We should see the same robust enrollment in the early days of week 5 as well, as last minute shoppers and procrastinators race to beat the deadline.
It’s Time to Sort out the Numbers Again
As was done in our Week 3 Enrollment Update, we have to make oranges in to apples to get a clear perspective as to how well enrollment is or is not progressing.
First, the figure provided by HHS represents only those who selected plans from the federal exchange. The federal exchange covers only 73% of the states and so, all things being equal, there would be roughly 3.1 million plans selected on the state and federal healthcare exchanges over the first 4 weeks of enrollment. Man, that is a lot of plans selected!
Included in these 3.1 million selections are plan renewals which accounts for 52% of the selections, as reported by HHS. The remaining 48% or 1.5 million selections can be attributed to new customers to the exchanges, not all of which were formerly uninsured.
Next we need to take into account attrition. The 2014 enrollment period yielded a 17% attrition rate when all was said and done and there is no reason to expect the rate to fall this enrollment period. In fact, some industry experts are suggesting that, due to the increase in premiums and deductibles, the attrition rate for 2015 may actually increase. But for now, we will stick with 17% which drops the estimated enrollment down to 1.2 million over the first 4 weeks. Not bad, not bad at all.
At the current pace, some would speculate that 2015 enrollment will be in excess of 3.5 million however, this is highly unlikely. Week 4 enrollment expectedly outpaced the previous 3 weeks due to the December 15th deadline to be insured by January 1. The high volume of individuals who selected plans in week 4 will likely not be seen again, except possibly in the final week, as was seen in 2014.
Those Pesky Cancelation Notices
During the 2014 enrollment period, at least one in every three qualified healthcare plans purchased on the state and federal healthcare exchanges came from an individual transferring off of their old insurance plan. Will the same hold true for 2015?
In a USA Today article published back in October of this year, it was stated that the number of cancelation notices to be {have been} mailed out are expected to be significantly lower than during the first enrollment period but cancelations are coming none the less.
While those in the private individual insurance marketplace are not expected to suffer as bad as in the previous year, the small employer marketplace is about to get its butt kicked by cancelations. This is due to the coming expiration of the delay to the employer mandate which was unilateral imposed last year by President Obama.
Where Do We Actually Stand on Insuring the Uninsured?
The inaugural enrollment period did not get things off to a very good start for ObamaCare and little seems to have improved in the realm of enrollment since then.
To date, HHS has failed to produce the actual number of uninsured nonelderly that selected, paid for and retained a qualified healthcare plan however, through various other enrollment admissions HHS has made, the number can be no greater than 4.5 million and in all likelihood is much less.
Add 2014 enrollment to the extremely optimistic 3.1 million uninsured nonelderly that may purchase, pay for and retain a qualified healthcare plan during the current open enrollment period to arrive at a total of 7.6 million. This very very best case enrollment figure barely surpasses the 2014 projection and is well shy of the 13 million the Obama Administration originally forecasted by close of the 2015 enrollment period.
It does look
as though the current enrollment will in fact surpass President Obama lowered
expectations for 2015, having dropped the prediction by 4 million from its
original goal of 6 million but having to do so tells its own story. And dropping the enrollment expectations of
ObamaCare has no bearing in the laws fiscal obligations made to insures in
agreement for their participation on the healthcare exchanges.
The end game for ObamaCare was
to put a qualified healthcare plan in the hands of 24 million of America’s
uninsured nonelderly by 2017. If they
are lucky, they will achieve half of that but so far luck has not been on the
side of the troubled healthcare law.
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