Even back in the very early days, when it was still a healthcare reform bill, ObamaCare struggled to gain popularity amongst Americans and has never in its existence captured the majority by those in favor of the law verses the number who oppose it. And it was the devious and highly unethical measures taken by Congressional Democrats to ensure ObamaCare’s passage in to law which caused the voter revolt that led to their subsequent loss of control over the House or Representative in 2010.
The burden of ObamaCare has never let up and Democrats trying to protect their majority in the Senate found themselves in a battle against the unpopular law again in the 2014 mid-terms. Most Democrats distanced themself from the faltering law as they made their bid to hold their senate seat while, in an unprecedented move, a few broke ranks and spoke negatively of ObamaCare. Even at the insistence by the president that ObamaCare was a positive campaign issue for Senate Democrats, those running for re-election refused to make the troubled healthcare law a part of their campaign message.
But try as they may, Democrats were unable to shake the people’s displeasure with ObamaCare and were ousted from power in the Senate this past November.
Loved by Republicans and Loathed by Democrats Come 2016
As they kick off the 2016 election cycle, both parties are looking for areas to gain political footing as well as to identify and remove any obstacles that might trip them up. On the lists for both Democrats and Republicans is ObamaCare!
For Republicans it will be business as usual as they will continue to put front and center the long list of burdens that have befallen upon our economy complements of ObamaCare. Democrats will have a much greater challenge. As ObamaCare remains troublesome and the public call for repeal increases, Democrats will have to do a great deal more than just distance themselves from the President’s namesake legislation if they have any hopes of holding the White House.
While no Democrat will say so publically, there are certainly those that are secretly hoping for ObamaCare to crumble and fall on its own, especially those Democrats who have been all in with their support and defending of the troubled law. For those Democrats, speaking out against ObamaCare would be political suicide however, if they could run a campaign void of having to defend or denounce the President's healthcare reform law, their chances in 2016 become significantly brighter.
Helping To Repeal ObamaCare
While many Democrats may secretly be hoping for the self-implosion of ObamaCare the likelihood of this happening is virtually nil. Short of a US Supreme Court decision to overturn a major aspect of the law, little can be done to inflict enough pain on ObamaCare for it to fail on its own, at least not until 2017 at which time the taxpayer funded safety net the protects insurers from losses expires and insurance rates will most certainly skyrocket as a result. But this would happen too late to effect the 2016 presidential election cycle.
Of course any attempt by the new congress to repeal the law would be met with an instant veto by a President who cares more about protecting the single feather in his cap than the better good of the American people. However, if ObamaCare did in fact take a turn for the worst, one cannot help but wonder to what point will Democrats continue let the law fail before they would be compelled to take action?
There is only so much distance that can be created between ObamaCare and those Democrats who are putting in a presidential bid for 2016 and you can be assured they will be taken to task regarding their past and current position on the law throughout the campaign season. If ObamaCare continues to lose popularity, at some point it will simply become too controversial and unpopular for Democrats to overcome.
ObamaCare is Already Walking on Thin Ice
A challenge has been raised {King v Burwell} over the Federal Government’s authority to distribute tax subsidies for healthcare plans sold through the federal exchange and is under review by the Supreme Court. If the plaintiffs were to win this challenge it would disallow subsidies to be distributed to those who have purchased healthcare plans through the federal exchange subsequently increasing their premiums, in some cases significantly. This would likely cause a large number of individuals to seek out other forms of insurance off the exchange. As well, many would find insurance unaffordable and would end up uninsured. These loses would be a major blow to the fiscal well-being of ObamaCare.
Enrollment on the exchanges also remains to be a challenge as the long term uninsured individuals that the administration believed would flood the marketplace to take advantage of the affordable offerings provided by ObamaCare have so far failed to materialize. As it looks now, enrollment might meet 50% of the administrations original projection for 2016 which would be devistating. Democrats have remained quiet on the issue of ObamaCare enrollment but are watching closely in hopes that the weak participation by the uninsured turns around. But in all honestly, there is little hope of an enrollment boom by the uninsured happening.
The bi-partisan supported repeal of the medical device tax could also spell trouble for ObamaCare. While the revenue generated by the medical device tax is small potatoes in comparison to most of the other revenue streams that have been created to help fund ObamaCare, the fear is that a repeal of the medical device tax could set a precedence for the repeal of other much larger revenue streams of the law, revenue streams which would be significantly harder to replace if they could be replaced at all.
None of these issues could put an immediate end to ObamaCare however, they could certainly set the wheels in motion and make defending the law ever more difficult than it already is for those Democrats looking to the White House in 2016.
What Does This All Mean?
The day following the Democrat's defeat in the recent mid-term election, while acknowledging the new Senate, President Obama made it clear that the one thing that was off the table was the repeal of ObamaCare, so long as he was president.
Had the President made this claim a year ago, when nobody was really thinking about 2016 yet, most would have probably agreed that a repeal of ObamaCare would be impossible. But 2016 is not all that far away now and ObamaCare still remains to be the single greatest obstacle Democrats have repeatedly had to face.
ObamaCare has been a thorn in the side of Democrats since before it was passed into law. Not only will this nagging pain not go away but it continues to spread like an untreated cancer. Left unchecked it will eventually kill any hope Democrats have in maintaining control of the White House. And like any cancer, the best way to prevent its spread is by removing it as soon as possible. Doing so to ObamaCare might not be as unlikely to happen as many might think.
Democrats have begun to turn away from preserving the president’s legacy and are becoming more involved with their own self-preservation. In doing so, if Democrats find ObamaCare to be an albatross around their neck, do not think for a moment that they will not rid themselves of this burden. It would take only 44 democrats in the House and 13 in the Senate to side with Republicans and override a presidential veto of an ObamaCare repeal. This may have seemed an impossibility a year or even six months ago but with the growing unpopularity of both the president and his namesake healthcare law, the possibility of Democrats jumping on the repeal bandwagon grows stronger each day. From a voter perspective standpoint, the sooner ObamaCare is repealed the better. Siding to repeal ObamaCare as a last ditch effort to hold the White House would reflect poorly on Democrats who would, up until that point, have been defending the law through the campaign cycle. There would be far more anger than forgiveness available from voters at the midnight hour.
2016 is still two years away which gives Democrats plenty of time to recover from the political tongue lashing that will ensue if they do turn on the law which they have so deeply invested themselves in. The wounds will heal however, and with any luck a bi-partisan approach to healthcare reform will be well in the works come election time, which would score Democrats major points with voters who have been soured by the Obama Administration. On the other hand, if Democrats lose the White House in 2016, ObamaCare will most certainly be repealed anyway so there is a great deal of incentive for Democrats to switch gears and work with Republicans now and remove this thorn from their side.
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