It has proven all but impossible
to pin down the effect that the Individual Mandate had on reducing the number
of uninsured in 2014. But despite the efforts
put forth by the Obama Administration to withhold specific enrollment
information, a report just released by the US Census Bureau has provided a much
clearer understanding of how the Individual Mandate influenced enrollment
through the healthcare exchanges in 2014.
Back in February of this year, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) revealed that in 2014, 10.75 million individuals gained healthcare coverage through the Medicaid and CHIP programs. From the CMSreport:
Back in February of this year, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) revealed that in 2014, 10.75 million individuals gained healthcare coverage through the Medicaid and CHIP programs. From the CMSreport:
Looking at the
additional enrollment since October 2013 when the initial Marketplace open
enrollment period began, among the 49 states reporting both December 2014
enrollment data and data from July-September of 2013, over 10.75 million
additional individuals are enrolled in Medicaid and CHIP as of December 2014,
approximately an 18.6 percent increase over the average monthly enrollment for
July through September of 2013.
Fast forward to earlier this
month, the US Census Bureau released its report
on health insurance coverage in the United States in 2014. The report concluded that compared to 2013, the
number of uninsured individuals in the United States decreased by 8.8 million. From the USCensus Bureau report:
The
uninsured rate decreased between 2013 and 2014 by 2.9 percentage points. In
2014, the percentage of people without health insurance coverage for the entire
calendar year was 10.4 percent, or 33.0 million, lower than the rate and
number of uninsured in 2013 (13.3 percent or 41.8 million).
These two reports cannot make
it any clearer. The number of uninsured
dropped by 10.75 million through Medicaid/CHIP enrollment in 2014 yet the
overall drop in the number of uninsured in the nation fell by a lesser 8.8
million over the same period. In other
words, more people gained healthcare coverage through Medicaid/CHIP than the
overall drop in the number of uninsured.
This means that someplace 1.95 million insured America’s were lost and
that someplace is through the healthcare insurance exchanges.
That’s right, according to the data provided by these two respected government sources (yes we are using their numbers), at the end of the 2014 open enrollment period there was a net negative number of people insured from the pool of non-Medicaid qualified individuals with 1.95 million fewer having a healthcare plan than when the healthcare insurance exchanges opened for the first time six months earlier. Not a great testament to the success of the Individual Mandate now is it. And keep in mind, this 1.95 million does not represent the entire pool of formerly insured who dropped out of the insurance marketplace in 2014.
While we do not know the exact figure, various industry sources estimate the number of long term uninsured individual who purchased and maintained a qualified healthcare plan through the exchanges in 2014 to be someplace in the neighborhood of 1.0 and 1.5 million. Whatever that figure actually is, there were the same number of formerly insured who dropped out of the insurance marketplace in 2014. In other words, to support the US Census Bureau’s reported 8.8 million reduction in the uninsured, for every long term uninsured individual that purchased and maintained a healthcare insurance plan in 2014, one formerly insured individual had to drop out of the insurance marketplace. So if 1.5 million of the nation’s long term uninsured did in fact purchase and maintain a qualified healthcare plan through one of the state and federal healthcare exchanges in 2014 then 3.45 million formerly insured individuals would have had to drop their insurance plans (1.5 million to offset new enrollees plus the 1.95 million overall reduction in the number of insured prior to the opening of the exchanges) to maintain the 8.8 million reduction reported by the US Census Bureau.
A dropout rate of this size is not at all inconceivable. We do know that at the same time the 2014 open enrollment period opened, millions of individual healthcare plans were canceled for non-ACA compliance. The actual number of cancelation notices sent out by insurers is highly debated, the most accepted number being 4.7 million as reported by the Associated Press. We do not know how many of those who had their insurance plans canceled purchased a new ACA compliant plan nor do we know how many who did not receive a cancelation noticed dropped out of the marketplace voluntarily, but we know many did.
So What Does This Mean?
That’s right, according to the data provided by these two respected government sources (yes we are using their numbers), at the end of the 2014 open enrollment period there was a net negative number of people insured from the pool of non-Medicaid qualified individuals with 1.95 million fewer having a healthcare plan than when the healthcare insurance exchanges opened for the first time six months earlier. Not a great testament to the success of the Individual Mandate now is it. And keep in mind, this 1.95 million does not represent the entire pool of formerly insured who dropped out of the insurance marketplace in 2014.
While we do not know the exact figure, various industry sources estimate the number of long term uninsured individual who purchased and maintained a qualified healthcare plan through the exchanges in 2014 to be someplace in the neighborhood of 1.0 and 1.5 million. Whatever that figure actually is, there were the same number of formerly insured who dropped out of the insurance marketplace in 2014. In other words, to support the US Census Bureau’s reported 8.8 million reduction in the uninsured, for every long term uninsured individual that purchased and maintained a healthcare insurance plan in 2014, one formerly insured individual had to drop out of the insurance marketplace. So if 1.5 million of the nation’s long term uninsured did in fact purchase and maintain a qualified healthcare plan through one of the state and federal healthcare exchanges in 2014 then 3.45 million formerly insured individuals would have had to drop their insurance plans (1.5 million to offset new enrollees plus the 1.95 million overall reduction in the number of insured prior to the opening of the exchanges) to maintain the 8.8 million reduction reported by the US Census Bureau.
A dropout rate of this size is not at all inconceivable. We do know that at the same time the 2014 open enrollment period opened, millions of individual healthcare plans were canceled for non-ACA compliance. The actual number of cancelation notices sent out by insurers is highly debated, the most accepted number being 4.7 million as reported by the Associated Press. We do not know how many of those who had their insurance plans canceled purchased a new ACA compliant plan nor do we know how many who did not receive a cancelation noticed dropped out of the marketplace voluntarily, but we know many did.
So What Does This Mean?
What this means is in its inaugural year, ObamaCare proved to be nothing more than an incredibly expensive social entitlement program. That’s right, in 2014 ObamaCare managed to provide 10.75 million low income individuals access to taxpayer funded, lesser quality healthcare while at the same time managing to increase the number of the uninsured who were qualified to purchase healthcare plans through the state and federal healthcare exchanges by nearly 2 million rather than shrinking they pool by 7 million as President Obama claimed the individual mandate would, during its first year.
In the minds of most liberal democrats, having the affordability driven out of healthcare plans purchased by hard working Americans, even to the extent that more lose their healthcare plans than gain them, is a justified means to fund more government dependency to an expanded level of lower income individuals. To these same liberal democrats, the failed obligation of the law to serve the working middle class is obviously of no consequence.
How Long Will the Left Ignore the Failure?
As long as those on the left are allowed to remain willfully ignorant, the failure of the Individual Mandate will go on unabated. So the real question that needs to be asked is how long will the left be allowed to remain willfully ignorant?
The close of the 2016 open enrollment period is likely the answer to this question. Once the open enrollment period closes, the start of a major Republican campaign to bring to light all the failures of ObamaCare, especially the Individual Mandate will begin. Maybe not willfully, but Democrats will have no choice but to engage themselves in to the conversation at that time.
Assuming that participation by the uninsured remains as anemic as it has through the first two open enrollment periods, the reduction of the pool of the uninsured who are qualified to participate on the healthcare exchanges will face a 70-80% projection shortfall. This will leave Democrats with no means to defend the failure of the Individual Mandate and therefore they will be forced to concede that ObamaCare has truly turned out to be nothing more than a costly Medicaid expansion.
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