Only 3.3 Million Uninsured Have Obtained Insurance through the ObamaCare Exchanges

The ObamaCare exchanges have performed even worse than I projected, at least so says the Obama Administration.

On Monday, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) released its latest enrollment report on ObamaCare.  At first glance, the reported enrollment figure of 16.4 million looked pretty impressive but after taking a second look, it turns out that enrollment through the ObamaCare exchanges has changed little, in fact, if anything these latest numbers reveal enrollment numbers even lower than I previously projected.

The new report indicates that since October of 2013, the time at which the ObamaCare exchanges and the Medicaid expansion opened, 14.1 million individuals gained healthcare coverage.  The report unfortunately does not quantify the make-up of those 14.1 million insurance recipients.  But in another report, issued by HHS less than a month ago, it was stated that as of December 2014, 10.8 million gained healthcare coverage through the Medicaid expansion.

By removing the reported number of individuals who gained Medicaid coverage from the reported total reduction of the uninsured, we arrive at 3.3 million being the maximum number of individuals that could have obtained a qualified healthcare plan both on and off the ObamaCare exchanges.  This falls a half million shy of my earlier projection, I guess I will have to sharpen my pencil a bit.

For simplicity, let us assume that all of these 3.3 million purchased their qualified healthcare plan through the ObamaCare exchanges as the exchanges likely make up the bulk (but not all) of the enrollments.

3.3 million formerly uninsured individuals purchasing a qualified healthcare plan through the ObamaCare exchanges after 9 full months of open enrollment, that’s not much of an endorsement as to the success of a provision in the law which was originally projected to have signed up 10 million uninsured through the ObamaCare exchanges at this point.  This also puts ObamaCare exchange enrollment at a massive deficit heading into the 2016 open enrollment period. 

As sold to congress and the American people, at the close of the 2016 open enrollment period, 13 million individuals were originally projected to have purchased a qualified healthcare plan, as indicated in the March 20, 2010 CBO report issued to then Speaker Nancy Pelosi and presented to the House of Representative just prior to the vote and passage of H.R. 3590, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.  ObamaCare was signed in to law two days later under these terms. 

Does anyone honestly believe 10 million of America’s remaining uninsured are going to have a change of heart and purchase a qualified healthcare plan in 2016?  If the past two years are any indication, fewer than 2 million uninsured will show.